By Disciple Sian
Prepared for the Zomi Research Institute
Abstract
This critique and policy analysis evaluates the 2025 UNDP report A Generation on the Move: Youth Migration and Perceptions in Myanmar. Drawing upon the 2024 Myanmar Youth Survey with 7,187 respondents and supporting qualitative interviews, the report explores how Myanmar’s youth navigate the collapse of institutional order through migration and civic resistance. This analysis situates the findings within established migration theory, socio-political instability, and regional dynamics.
It argues that youth migration in Myanmar today is not merely an act of escape, but a political act reflecting aspirations, capabilities, and disenchantment with militarized governance. The author builds on the report’s empirical base to generate deeper insights into youth agency, diaspora reintegration, and democratic futures.
Keywords: Myanmar, youth migration, post-coup society, aspirations-capability framework, civic resistance, authoritarianism, displacement, diaspora
Introduction
The 2021 military coup in Myanmar marked the beginning of an unprecedented authoritarian rollback. Youth—many of whom had come of age during Myanmar’s brief democratic opening—now confront systemic violence, economic precarity, and conscription. This generation, once called the “transition generation,” is now the generation in exodus.
This article critically reviews the 2025 United Nations Development Program (UNDP) report A Generation on the Move and extends its findings by integrating political sociology, migration theory, and regional displacement frameworks. It addresses three key themes: the motivations behind migration, perceptions of democratic decline, and the potential for return and reconstruction.
Methodological Foundation
The UNDP report is based on the Myanmar Youth Survey 2024 (MYS), covering 7,187 participants aged 18–35 using CATI (Computer-Assisted Telephone Interviewing). FGDs (Focus Group Discussions) were also conducted with migrant youth in Myanmar and abroad.
Strengths
- Mixed-methods design
- Stratified sampling by region, gender, and socio-political factors
- Weighting for statistical reliability
Limitations
- Limited access to conflict-affected zones, such as Kayah State and Chin State, particularly the Zomi areas, due to their highly dynamic and diverse group variations and operations.
- Exclusion of displaced youth without telecommunication access
- Overrepresentation of urban and mobile-access respondents
Migration Trends and Findings
Key Findings:
- 40% of the youth surveyed intend to migrate
- Migration is highest in conflict zones such as Rakhine, Chin/ Zomi, and Kayin
- Japan has overtaken Thailand as the most desired destination
- 90% of migration-inclined youth would return if conditions improved
Migration emerges not just as a mobility strategy, but as a statement of resistance against declining national systems. Youth are not simply “leaving” Myanmar—they are seeking new routes to live with dignity, while remaining emotionally anchored to their homeland.
Drivers of Migration
The report applies Lee’s Push-Pull Model (1966) and de Haas’ Aspirations-Capability Framework (2021).
Push Factors
- Economic collapse and hyperinflation
- Military conscription and human rights abuses
- Decline in educational quality and civic freedoms
Pull Factors
- Better income and working conditions abroad
- Access to quality education
- Safety, especially for ethnic and LGBTQIA+ minorities
Barriers to Migration
- Lack of valid passports and exit permits
- Travel restrictions for conscription-age males
- Reliance on informal brokers exposes youth to debt bondage and trafficking
Political and Social Perceptions
Youth are deeply aware of the political decay unfolding around them.
Sentiment Analysis:
- 55% believe the country is heading in the wrong direction
- 68% still believe peace is possible
- 66% support ceasefire and reconciliation
- 62% believe that democracy and economic development are inseparable
This reveals a powerful blend of disillusionment and conditional hope, making youth both a flight-prone and return-oriented population.
Policy Implications
1. Build Retention Through Opportunity
- Rehabilitate education systems and employment pipelines
- Demilitarize public institutions, especially schools
- Support language and vocational programs
2. Diaspora Inclusion
- Formal diaspora registries via embassies or digital platforms
- Allow skill transfer via remote work or fellowships
- Provide credential recognition and bilateral work schemes
3. Civic and Peacebuilding Engagement
- Include youth voices in political transition dialogues
- Fund youth-led media and storytelling platforms
- Protect digital civic space from censorship and surveillance
Critique of the Report
Strengths
- Strong empirical grounding
- Integrative use of migration theory
- Rich qualitative insights through FGDs
Weaknesses
- No longitudinal follow-up on returnees
- Underexplored gender, ethnic, and disability-related dynamics
- Limited comparative insight into regional migration corridors (e.g., Laos, Cambodia)
Despite these limitations, the report is a valuable contribution to both development policy and youth studies in authoritarian transitions.
Conclusion
The UNDP report reveals a generation navigating peril with principle. Youth migration is not a defeat—it is a strategy. These are future reformers, temporarily exiled, but hopeful of return.
Myanmar’s peace, democratic revival, and socio-economic transformation will depend on youth: their vision, their mobility, and their eventual reintegration. For that to happen, inclusive policy, protective mechanisms, and international partnerships must be urgently pursued.
Youth Futures in Crisis and Transition
In light of the 2025 escalation of armed resistance, the rebranding of the junta to the State Security and Peace Commission (SSPC), and growing diaspora communities in Japan, Thailand, and South Korea, the following insights are critical for future direction:
1. Regional Integration and Migration Protection
- ASEAN cooperation for recognizing Myanmar’s credentials
- Joint monitoring with ILO, IOM, and UNHCR to prevent trafficking
2. Political Reintegration of Youth
- Youth parliaments-in-exile (digital governance labs)
- Legal aid for deported or stateless returnees
- Truth-telling and restorative justice processes led by youth
3. Social and Psychological Rehabilitation
- Trauma-informed reintegration services
- Transnational peer-support networks
- Returnee leadership academies for democratic transition
4. Research and Knowledge Production
- Comparative studies of youth in resistance movements (Syria, Ukraine, Sudan)
- Role of AI and digital tools in enabling remote activism
- Mapping long-term impacts of interrupted education and forced displacement
Myanmar’s next political chapter will not be authored solely by elites—but by diasporic youth, students in exile, and citizens in motion.
Reference Document:
Bibliography
- De Haas, Hein. “A Theory of Migration: The Aspirations-Capabilities Framework.” Comparative Migration Studies 9, no. 8 (2021).
- Lee, Everett S. “A Theory of Migration.” Demography 3, no. 1 (1966): 47–57.
- UNDP. A Generation on the Move: Youth Migration and Perceptions in Myanmar. New York: United Nations Development Program, 2025.
- IFPRI. Those Who Leave and Those Who Stay: Migration in Myanmar. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute, 2024.
- World Bank. Myanmar Economic Monitor: Compounding Crises. Washington, DC: World Bank Group, 2024.
- OECD. Recruiting Immigrant Workers: Japan 2024. Paris: OECD Publishing, 2024.
For publication, permission, or citation inquiries, contact the Zomi Research Institute or the author, Disciple Sian.
